The Boston Red Sox were officially aka mathematically eliminated from the 2024 MLB Playoffs this week. A loss to the rival Toronto Blue Jays on September 25th sealed their fate. In that fateful game, the BoSox left 8 runners on base. In fact, in the series they averaged leaving 8 runners on base, despite winning a few of the series’ games. I’m sure Yogi Berra or Casey Stengel or Dusty Baker said it better than I will but, “when runners are left on base, they tend not to score.” The Red Sox are not going to the postseason, in my opinion, mostly because of one stat – runners left on base. Here is my research and rant on the subject.

I’m not a huge stathead anymore, meaning I don’t spend a ton of time reading player stats in the box scores post games throughout an MLB season. In my youth as a newspaper sports section junkie batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs scored were always the offensive stats most hitters were judged by. Now it’s exit velocity, launch angle, and an amalgamation of several letters amounting to, well I don’t know what. They even have stats for “predicted” average on a rainy Tuesday in July on a 55% muddy field in Boston. Well, I’m overextending a bit on that last one, but I’m sure I’m not that far off. So, I became a stathead again for this article and researched what I felt was the 2024 Boston Red Sox nemesis in their post ASG decline in the standings.

Since the 2024 All Star Break, the Boston Red Sox went from playoff contender and major nuisance to the top AL East teams (Orioles, Yankees) to a “feel good” bunch of up and comers who Red Sox nation should be proud of. Many, many new players have been added to the mix and the future looks bright in Boston, that is what we are all saying after their second half decline in the standings. And for the most part, we/they are right – the future of the Boston Red Sox looks very promising. I’ve seen the minor league prospects, they are incredible and many will be ready for the Boston Red Sox Opening Day Roster in 2025! One stat that really jumped out researching this team game after game, series after series was runners left on base. Let’s start with the first 3 series post ASG. Here are the runners left on base for each series:

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 6, 9, 10
• Colorado Rockies – 7, 11, 4
• New York Yankees – 11, 11, 8

And their record to start the 2nd half of the season, 2 wins and 7 losses. Granted two of those teams are playoff, potentially World Series caliber teams (Dodgers, Yankees) but still. In the first 3 series after the ASG, the Red Sox left a total of 77 runners on base, those tend not to score if they are left on base. That is an average of 8 runners per game. And with the exception of the 20-7 beatdown by the Colorado Rockies on July 24th, the Red Sox were in striking distance in every other game of that 9 game post ASG stretch. Could any of those 8 runners made a difference in those games and potentially the outcome of the games and potentially the outcome of their playoff run? Absolutely yes, 100000%.

I took a longer look at the Boston Red Sox box scores post ASG, searching for those letters – LOB. In the runners left on base, those tend not to score column, the Boston Red Sox averaged about 6 runners left on base per game for the 20 series post ASG. The worst game – 17 runners left on base vs the Minnesota Twins on September 20th. The Sox were 1 for 19 with runners in scoring position. One batter out of 19 recorded a run batting in by putting the ball in play/getting a hit with a runner on 2nd or 3rd base in this game. The Twins of course beat the Red Sox that night in 12 innings, on paper maybe their worst loss of the season statistically speaking for me personally. Nobody can get a hit in the other 18 at-bats? We got runners on base, heck they are 2nd or 3rd. All we need is a single, all we need is a timely hit, actually all we need is a deep fly to right. Nobody can put the ball in the outfield grass or in the bullpen seats in right field or over the Green Monster in Left?

How about stepping up for rivalry games vs your AL East foes, the ones you are trying to catch – Baltimore and NY Yankees. Let’s see how you fared in those series post ASG:

• Baltimore – split the series 08/15-18; LOB – 6, 8, 6, 11
• Baltimore – Won series 09/09-11; LOB – 6, 7, 8
• NYY – We already discussed the first series 1-2 record, 30 runs LOB for the series, ouch.
• NYY – lost series 3-1 09/12-15; LOB 7, 5, 5, 8

Clearly, the Boston Red Sox hitters are getting on base. You can’t leave runners on base when you are popping out, grounding out, and striking out every at bat. So, you have the offensive capabilities of many, many players in your lineup to get on base. And with the speed up and down the lineup, you are even getting into scoring position via most of your hitters. 90 feet away in some cases. A deep fly ball with less than 2 outs will score just about any runner in Major League baseball. A shallow fly ball will probably score a fast runner, which the Boston Red Sox have several. Even with 2 outs, a well placed single or a drag bunt or any type of base hit will produce a run. Runners left on base tend not to score.

I had a lot of fun following this 2024 Boston Red Sox team. I watched players develop from good to great to All Star caliber. I watched starting pitchers throw more quality innings and earn quality victories and build confidence for seasons to come. I watched a team of potential all star caliber players go down with nearly season long injuries, and the team of “who’s that?” type players step up in their absence and have tremendously impactful seasons. And I watched many, many Minor League Boston Red Sox affiliates play in my travels and honestly, the future is bright and the future is now for some of these stars. The Boston Red Sox were so close to making the 2024 playoffs this season, they just didn’t have enough in the end to make that final and important push. I wonder how many will look back at all those runners left on base in the 2nd half of the season and (say it with me) know that runners left on base tend not to score.

I’ll recite the missed playoffs psalm that Red Sox fans know all too well, “better luck next season.” And here’s to the Red Sox in 2025 continuing their offensive performances and driving in some of those runners on base and making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Because that is how Red Sox fans think!